Foreign Powers Escalate Influence Operations Ahead of U.S. Election

With the U.S. Election Day 2024 approaching, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) has identified continuous foreign influence operations carried out by Russia, Iran, and China aimed at disrupting democratic processes in the United States. According to MTAC, "with two weeks until Election Day 2024, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) observes sustained influence efforts by Russia, Iran, and China aimed at undermining U.S. democratic processes." These efforts include cyber and influence operations such as targeted disinformation campaigns, AI-enhanced content creation, and covert messaging that seek to erode public trust in candidates and the election system. Each of these nation-states brings unique tactics to influence the U.S. electorate, ranging from Russia's focus on Vice President Harris’s campaign to Iran's manipulation of domestic social issues, and China's attempts to sway down-ballot races.

Russia’s influence efforts are particularly focused on the Harris-Walz ticket, with Russian operatives using AI to create deepfake videos that attack the candidates’ characters. These videos, despite some gaining little traction, exemplify Russia's ongoing use of advanced content manipulation to engage U.S. audiences. Iran, meanwhile, is leveraging its cyber capabilities through the group known as Cotton Sandstorm, with evidence of ongoing reconnaissance on election-related sites. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, Iran continues to influence U.S. voters by sowing division on issues like the U.S. stance on Israel. China, on the other hand, has concentrated its influence on Republican members of Congress who oppose Chinese policies, using campaigns to spread misinformation and promote alternative candidates.

The overall strategy shared by these foreign actors appears to be one of maximizing discord and undermining confidence in the electoral process. MTAC’s monitoring of these influence operations reveals a pattern of exploiting political tensions and using new technologies, such as AI, to amplify their reach. As Election Day draws near, these actors may increase their efforts, particularly in the critical window around voting day.